10 Key Insights on the Limited 'Return to Coal' Amid the Iran Crisis

The Iran conflict and subsequent gas supply disruptions have sparked fears of a global 'return to coal.' However, new analysis from the thinktank Ember, shared exclusively with Carbon Brief, suggests this rebound is far more muted than anticipated. In this listicle, we break down the 10 most critical facts you need to know about coal’s actual trajectory in 2026, the geopolitical drivers, and why clean energy remains the stronger trend.

1. The Global Rise in Coal Output Is Negligible

According to Ember's worst-case scenario, worldwide coal power output will increase by no more than 1.8% in 2026. This is a far cry from the dramatic surge many predicted after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments. In reality, the actual increase could be even lower, as the analysis factors in both planned coal expansions and the ongoing declines in other regions. The modest rise underscores that—contrary to sensational headlines—the energy world is not pivoting back to coal.

2. No 'Return to Coal' Has Materialized So Far in 2026

Separate tracking data through the early months of 2026 shows that coal generation has not rebounded significantly. While some countries have announced intentions to burn more coal, those plans have yet to translate into a measurable global uptick. This mirrors the situation after the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, when European coal use spiked briefly but then resumed a long-term decline. The current trend suggests that media narratives about a coal comeback are overblown.

3. Only a Handful of Nations Are Planning Coal Increases

At least eight countries across Asia and Europe have announced plans to boost coal-fired power, delay coal phaseouts, or review existing policies. These include Japan, South Korea, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Thailand, Pakistan, Germany, and Italy. Many of them are major coal consumers, but their combined actions are expected to result in only a small rise in global output. The limited scope of these plans highlights how coal is no longer the default response to energy crises.

4. Declining Coal Use in Some Countries Offsets Increases

Parallel to the planned upticks, several nations are continuing to phase down coal. For example, the European Union’s coal generation reached a historic low in 2025 and is expected to fall further in 2026. This decline helps counterbalance the increases from countries like Pakistan and the Philippines. Global electricity demand growth is also slowing, which dampens the need for new fossil-fuel capacity. The net effect is that coal’s share of the power mix continues to shrink in the long run.

5. Experts Dismiss the Idea of a Coal 'Comeback'

Energy analysts and climate experts stress that 'the big story isn’t about a coal comeback.' Any short-term rise in coal use is 'merely masking a longer-term structural decline,' according to sources quoted by Carbon Brief. The fundamental drivers—cheap renewables, climate policies, and falling battery costs—remain intact. Even during a fossil-fuel-driven energy crisis, coal is seen as a stopgap, not a permanent solution.

6. Clean Energy Investments Are Surging Instead

The same energy crisis that prompted some countries to consider coal has also made clean energy projects more appealing. Solar and wind installations are at record highs, and grid-scale battery storage is expanding rapidly. Investors see renewables as a hedge against volatile fossil fuel prices. As a result, the crisis is accelerating, not reversing, the global energy transition. Many governments now view solar and wind as more reliable than coal imports.

7. The Iran Conflict Disrupted a Critical LNG Chokepoint

The trigger for coal concerns was Iran’s blockage of the Strait of Hormuz following US-Israeli attacks. Normally, about one-fifth of the world’s LNG transits through this narrow waterway, mostly destined for Asian markets. The blockade cut off supply and sent gas prices soaring, making coal a cheaper alternative in some countries. However, the impact on global gas supply is smaller than headlines suggest, because most gas travels via pipelines, not LNG tankers.

8. Historical Precedent: The 2022 Russia-Ukraine Spike Fizzled

In 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine, analysts predicted a coal resurgence in Europe due to curtailed Russian gas supplies. Coal use indeed rose that year, but as soon as alternative gas sources and efficiency measures kicked in, European coal plunged to a historic low by 2025. This pattern—a temporary spike followed by accelerated decline—is repeating now. The lesson is that energy crises can briefly lift coal, but structural forces quickly reassert themselves.

9. Gas-to-Coal Switching Is More Modest Than Feared

While gas shortages have driven some fuel switching from gas to coal, the scale is limited. Many of the countries turning to coal are doing so as a temporary measure, not a permanent shift. Moreover, nations like Germany and Italy have maintained their coal phaseout timelines despite the crisis. The net increase in coal generation from switching is estimated at only a few terawatt-hours, easily offset by renewable additions.

10. Climate Implications Are Minimal in the Short Term

Because the expected rise in coal output is so small—and partly temporary—the impact on global carbon emissions is also limited. Ember’s analysis suggests that even in the worst case, emissions from coal power in 2026 will be only slightly higher than in 2025, and likely still below pre-crisis levels. The long-term trajectory of coal remains downward, and the clean energy transition continues to gain momentum. Policymakers should focus on accelerating renewables, not overreacting to coal’s last gasps.

In conclusion, the much-discussed 'return to coal' is a non-event. The data shows a modest, temporary blip driven by a specific geopolitical shock, not a reversal of the energy transition. Clean energy investments are thriving, coal’s structural decline is intact, and the world is not heading back to the coal-fired past.